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Weather Forecast For The Fiji Group

Weather Forecast For The Fiji Group
Threat Track Map track for TC ULA (CAT 1). Source: Fiji Meteorological Service
December 31
11:03 2015

Issued 7am Thursday 31st December 2015

Weather Situation – If you are organizing or planning to attend new years eve parties this evening be aware that rain is very likely going to dominate weather over the next 24 hours or so. Tropical disturbance TD07F was is located close to Rotuma or about 500km north of Nadi at 6am this morning. Over the past 24 hours TD07F has been moving east-southeast at around 25 km per hour however forecasts indicate this system will slow down today and slowly weaken over waters well to the north of Vanua Levu close to Wallis and Futuna islands.

In the meantime Category 1 Tropical Cyclone ULA now located about 300 km east of Apia or 150 km east of Pago Pago, near the islands of Samoa is expected to move south and by tomorrow morning will likely be south of Samoa and deepening further. Significant rain and local flash flooding will continue around Samoa today as the system passes close by before conditions start to ease later tomorrow.

Forecast models indicate TC Ula will move west-southwest towards Fiji tomorrowbefore pushing across the central islands of Lau into the Koro Sea and then towards southeast Viti Levu and so there is a high risk that this system will directly impact Fiji over the coming weekend. More significantly, forecasts indicate that once TC Ula reaches the south of Viti Levu it may well slow down or become near stationary for a day or two. This is a concern because even weak tropical cyclones can wreak great devastation if they are slow moving as rainfall accumulates and flooding becomes more extensive with time. The longer range forecast is somewhat uncertain beyondMonday however it is now apparent that direct impacts of TC Ula over Fiji will start late Saturday.

For Fiji – Humid and mostly cloudy today with widespread showers tending heavy at times this evening and overnight with some thunder likely. Moderate east to northeasterly winds on coastal waters with local afternoon sea breezes.

Outlook for the next three daysTomorrow we can expect mostly cloudy weather with some rain, heavy at times, and humid northeasterly winds freshening. Saturday is likely to be mostly cloudy also with showers from time to time but additionally some sunny spells are also likely in the brief period between when TD07F weakens and dissipates and TC Ula arrives. By Sunday expect rain and increasing south to southeast winds as TC Ula moves over the eastern division and into the central division south of Suva closer to Kadavu.

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