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TD13F A Likely Category 2

TD13F A Likely Category 2
The forecast path shown above is the Fiji Meteorological Service’s best estimate of the expected cyclone’s future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks.
April 09
10:49 2018

A tropical depression (TD13F) moving to the west of Fiji is forecast to develop into a Category 2 tropical cyclone when it passes to the south of the Fiji Group.

TD13F is expect­ed to come closest to the Fiji Group at around midday tomorrow with the Western Division to experience in­creasing winds later this evening (Monday).

Fiji Meteorological Office Director Ravin Kumar said according to the latest reports yesterday the system stopped sometimes, at the same time delaying its intensity and making a loop before getting back on the expected south-eastward track.

“Winds are expected to start inten­sifying from tomorrow evening,” Mr Kumar said.

At 5pm yesterday TD13F remained to the west of the Fiji Group, but had been gradually picking up speed in the past 24 hours.

The system is intensifying and was anticipated to develop into a Category 1 cyclone by this morning (Monday).

The environmental condition re­mains favourable for further inten­sification and TD13F was likely to pass just southwest of Fiji tomor­row or early on Wednesday.

As the system moves closer to Fiji, rain will become heavy and fre­quent from today.

Effects of strong winds are also expected today and increasing to damaging gale force winds later in the evening.

Depending on the closeness of the system to pass land areas, gale force to storm force winds can be expected especially over the West­ern Division, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands, Lau and Lomaiviti Groups. Given that the tropical cy­clones have behaved erratically when encountering land masses in the past, the possibility of TD13F making a landfall remains a pos­sibility at this stage and its move­ment will be closely monitored.

The chances of flooding of low-lying areas and river flooding are very high today and in the next two to three days.

With persistent heavy rain, the chances of landslides are also high.

Likewise, the chance of sea flood­ing of low-lying coastal areas over the next two to three days is high.

As the systems approach, the western and the southern coast­lines are at high risk of inunda­tion by the combined effect of wind stress, high tide and storm surge.

The effects of wind can cause damage to well-built framed homes which can blow away roofs, uproot trees and branches being broken, se­verely damage weak structures, to­tally destroy shallow-rooted crops, cause loose objects to fly, damage electricity lines and poles, damage water infrastructure, etc.

All communities living in low coastal, flood-prone and low-lying areas are reminded to take all nec­essary precautions, similarly for those living in landslide-prone and low-lying coastal areas to remain vigilant.

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Edited by Epineri Vula

Feedback: charles.chambers@fijisun.com.fj

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