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Opinion

Analysis: It’s A Two-Party Race, Opinion Polls Indicate

Analysis: It’s A Two-Party Race, Opinion Polls Indicate
National Federation Party leader Biman Prasad and Oppostion leader Ro Teimumu Kepa.
July 21
12:38 2018

The 2018 General Election will vir­tually be a two-party race, public opinion polls so far indicate.

The latest Fiji Sun-Razor Poll shows SO­DELPA has pulled away from the opposi­tion pack to consolidate its second spot at 26 per cent. SODELPA has predictably emerged as the strongest challenger to Fi­jiFirst.

In the 2014 General Election SODELPA se­cured 28.18 per cent of the total votes cast.

The result translated to 139,857 votes and 15 seats in Parliament.

It still has lot more work to do to equal it. If it wants more seats it needs to do better.

In 2014, FijiFirst polled 293,714 votes or 59.17 per cent of the total votes cast.

This translated to 32 seats. With its recent polling results fluctuating between 60 and 70 per cent, FijiFirst could be increasing its seats in Parliament if it maintains or betters its current record.

While it has dropped some percentage points, FijiFirst maintains its healthy lead at 60 per cent.

The National Federation Party has failed to live up to expectation after the initial hype when it announced its first batch of candidates.

While it may bounce back close to the election, indications so far show that it is struggling to recapture the two digit figure it achieved earlier.

Will it be able to poll much higher than the 27,066 votes it recorded in 2014?

That figure represented 5.45 per cent of the total number of votes cast. So at six per cent, the party will be scoring slightly more than 27,066 votes and looking at a re­peat of its 2014 performance – three seats. A few weeks ago NFP was down to one per cent. It was not clear what caused that spectacular drop. It has since rebounded, but very slowly.

Its aim to displace SODELPA as the main Opposition party remains an elusive dream.

NFP leader Biman Prasad and the party’s brains trust would be working overtime to see how they can rectify the situation and regain its earlier progress.

The Fiji Labour Party is close behind at four per cent, followed by Unity Fiji at two per cent. FLP collected 2.35 per cent of the votes cast in the last election with 11,670 votes. At four per cent it could be getting a seat or two in Parliament.

The Fiji Sun-Razor poll conducted a face-to-face interview with 1000 people, 500 in the Central Division, 300 in the Western Division and 200 in the Northern Division.

Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama still leads the preferred PM race at 62 per cent, Sitiveni Rabuka is at 13 per cent, Ro Teimumu Kepa at 11 per cent, Biman Pras­ad at nine per cent, Aman Singh at two per cent.

The close race between Mr Rabuka and Ro Teimumu indicates the internal battle that has been going on in SODELPA.

Fiji Sun-Razor Poll Results

As it stands right now, who would you like to see elected as Fiji’s Prime Minister?

Bainimarama: 62%

Rabuka: 13%

Kepa: 11 %

Prasad: 9%

Aman Singh: 2%

Other: 3 %

If the election was held tomorrow, which party would you like to see elected to govern Fiji?

FijiFirst: 60%

SODELPA: 26%

NFP: 6%

FLP: 4%

Unity Fiji: 2%

None: 2%

Unsure: 0%

Are the Opposition parties using race and religion in their campaigns?

Yes: 60%

No: 21%

Unsure: 19%

Feedback: nemani.delaibatiki@fijisun.com.fj

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