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Fiji Is Forecast To Grow By 7.8% In 2022: World Bank Report

“Among the small Pacific Island countries, per capita incomes are expected to decline, and in many other countries in the region per capita income growth is projected to fall short of that in advanced economies,
13 Jan 2022 16:03
Fiji Is Forecast To Grow By 7.8% In 2022: World Bank Report
In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) will remain substantially below the pre-pandemic trend over the forecast horizon, the report said. Photo: Leon Lord

Fiji’s real GDP is forecasted at 7.8 per cent this year, according to the World Bank Group’s report, Global Economic Prospects, released on Tuesday.

This is against the -4.1 per cent estimate in 2021, -15.7 per cent in 2020 and -0.4 per cent in 2019.

The report said in a tourism-dependent country like Fiji facing significant fiscal consolidation needs, the recovery may extend beyond the forecast horizon.

“Among the small Pacific Island countries, per capita incomes are expected to decline, and in many other countries in the region per capita income growth is projected to fall short of that in advanced economies,” the report said.

“More recently, the recovery in the region excluding China has gained momentum on stronger domestic demand, as mobility restrictions eased and vaccination rollouts accelerated.

“Activity, however, continues to be dampened by the lingering pandemic.

“Goods export growth has softened as global growth and trade peaked amid persistent supply disruptions.

“Services trade has remained subdued on recurrent travel restrictions owing to pandemic resurgence.

“East Asia and Pacific (EAP) countries, especially the ones that rely on inflows from Australia, New Zealand, and the Unites States (including Fiji), however, have continued to benefit from resilient remittances.

“Many countries in the region have been experiencing a surge in producer price inflation.

“Consumer price inflation has also accelerated but remains within central bank target ranges in most EAP countries.

“All regional central banks continue to hold monetary policy steady.

“Growth in EAP is projected to slow to 5.2 per cent on average in 2022-23, reflecting a slowdown in China Forecast for 2022 is 0.2 percentage point below previous projections, in large part reflecting a forecast downgrade in China.

The region is expected to face a steady decline in global demand, as growth in major economies moderate.”

 

Global recovery

Overall, the global recovery is set to decelerate markedly amid continued COVID-19 flare-ups, diminished policy support, and lingering supply bottlenecks, the report said.

“In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) will remain substantially below the pre-pandemic trend over the forecast horizon.

“The global outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including renewed COVID-19 outbreaks due to Omicron or new virus variants, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels.

“If some countries eventually require debt restructuring, this will be more difficult to achieve than in the past.

“The economies of small islands are particularly vulnerable to disruptions from natural disasters and weather-related events.”

Feedbackranobab@fijisun.com.fj

 

 



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