NATION

Near Average Numbers Likely, Increased Activity In Late Season

On average, 10 named tropical cyclones occur in the Southwest Pacific {between 135°E (mid-Gulf of Carpentaria) and 120°W (French Polynesia)} each season (November to April). The outlook indicates that 8
25 Oct 2014 12:26
Near Average Numbers Likely, Increased Activity In Late Season
Tropical Cyclone Evan tore through the northwestern side of the main Fiji islands of Vanua Levu and Viti Levu on December 17, 2012.

On average, 10 named tropical cyclones occur in the Southwest Pacific {between 135°E (mid-Gulf of Carpentaria) and 120°W (French Polynesia)} each season (November to April).

The outlook indicates that 8 to 12 named cyclones are expected for the coming season. Tropical cyclone (TC) activity between Vanuatu and New Caledonia as well as east of the International Date Line is expected to be normal or below normal over the whole of the season. Normal or slightly above normal activity is expected for countries close to the International Date Line and near the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Most countries west of the International Date Line, including Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Fiji are likely to experience close to normal activity because of ENSO-neutral conditions. It should be recognised that increased activity in general is expected as the TC season progresses.

Note that the forecast of normal activity for islands like New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga indicates two or more cyclones could interact with each of those countries during the season.

At least one or more severe tropical cyclones (Category 3 or higher[1]) could occur anywhere across the Southwest Pacific during the season. All communities should remain vigilant and follow forecast information provided by their national meteorological service.

On average, New Zealand experiences at least one ex-tropical cyclone passing within 550km of the country every year. For the coming TC season, the risk for New Zealand is slightly higher than normal. If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, it has a higher probability of passing east rather than west of Auckland city.

 

newsroom@fijisun.com.fj

 

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