NATION

Growth Projections For 2018-2021

The following is a statement by the Chairman of the Mac­roeconomic Committee and Governor of the Reserve Bank of Fiji Following a growth of 3.0 per cent in 2017, the
03 Nov 2018 13:50
Growth Projections For 2018-2021

The following is a statement by the Chairman of the Mac­roeconomic Committee and Governor of the Reserve Bank of Fiji

Following a growth of 3.0 per cent in 2017, the Fijian economy is forecast to achieve its ninth consecutive year of expansion with a growth of 3.2 per cent, in 2018. While the growth forecast is unchanged from the May 2018 projection, there have been changes in terms of sectoral contributions.

The Governor of Reserve Bank and Chairman of the Mac­roeconomic Committee, Ariff Ali stated that: “The sectors projected to drive growth in 2018 include the wholesale and retail trade; accommodation and food services; public ad­ministration and defence, and the construction sectors.

“The favourable performance of the retail sector is con­sistent with the data for the first nine months of the year and the positive business sentiments revealed in the RBF June 2018 Business Expectations and Retail Sales Survey, while the buoyancy in the tourism industry underlines the higher contribution of the accommodation sector.”

However, the fishing and the mining sectors are expected to decline, a turnaround from the earlier forecast where these sectors were projected to grow.

The outturn in the fishing sector is due to lower activ­ity expected for inshore fishing (in particular, fresh water fishing, beche-de-mer, corals and aquarium rocks) and ma­rine aquaculture while the plant breakdown at the Vatu­koula Gold Mines in September led to the downgrade in the forecast for the mining sector.

Mr Ali further stated that: “Overall, the increase in do­mestic demand supported by the Government’s CARE for Fiji program, rehabilitation works post the natural dis­asters in April, accommodative monetary policy stance, expansionary FY 2018-19 National Budget, higher tourism arrivals and improving labour market conditions are ex­pected to provide support to economic activity this year.”

The Chairman added that, “the Fijian economy is fore­cast to achieve a broad based growth of 3.4 per cent in 2019, also unchanged from the earlier projection.

“In 2020 and 2021, the economy is expected to expand by 3.3 per cent, with major contributions expected from the wholesale and retail, construction, manufacturing and the financial and insurance sectors.”

On the external sector, despite the widening trade defi­cit arising from the growing economy and rising mineral oil prices, the overall balance of payments position is pro­jected to remain comfortable due to adequate support from tourism earnings and remittances.

The Macroeconomic Committee will continue to monitor global and domestic developments and review the macro­economic projections again in April 2019.

Source: Reserve Bank Of Fiji

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