Issued 9 am Wednesday 25th December 2019:

Merry Christmas to all.

High pressure over the Tasman Sea between Tasmania and the south island of New Zealand continues to direct light to moderate southeast trade winds over Fiji.

To the north the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is active and cross equatorial northwesterly monsoon winds are well established over waters just to the south of the equator between northern Papua New Guinea to Nauru and then east to the Gilbert islands of Kiribati.

Tropical Disturbance 03F is evident on satellite imagery this morning over waters north of Rotuma.

By tomorrow evening this disturbance is forecast to become a strong tropical cyclone moving south toward Fiji. Computer forecast guidance indicates that it is increasingly likely that this tropical cyclone will directly affect Fiji during the coming weekend.

Be alert to the heightened risk of hazardous weather beyond Christmas and over the coming weekend.

For Fiji – Mild to warm today with moderate southeast winds and fresh daytime sea breezes. Patchy high cloud increasing during the day with one or two brief passing showers over the central and eastern divisions.

A late afternoon or evening shower or two for the north and the west.

Outlook for the next three days – Easterly winds strengthening tomorrow with showers about the central and eastern divisions becoming more frequent and widespread across the northern and western division by evening as skies become overcast by evening ahead of the developing tropical depression to the north.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming by midnight tomorrow or early morning Friday 27 December over waters northwest of Fiji is high.

There is a significant risk that the developing tropical cyclone will directly affect Fiji on Saturday bringing northeast to northerly winds of increasing to damaging storm force with widespread heavy rain and damaging swells by Friday night. Storm surges can be expected about northern and western Viti Levu at high tide starting from Friday night.

Winds increasing destructive hurricane force Saturday about the western division including offshore islands of the Yasawas and Mamanucas. Heavy rain and local flash flooding is very likely in low lying areas.

Rivers will rise as the rain continues over the weekend.

You should be alert to these risk ahead of official warnings from relevant authorities which are likely to commence overnight tonight or early tomorrow, Thursday 26th of December.

Preparations for potential damaging and possibly destructive winds need to begin now as tomorrow is a public holiday.

AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE ANTICIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOW AND ALL COMMUNITIES SHOULD BE MAKING PREPARATIONS. THE DETAILS OF THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE CYCLONE WILL NOT LIKELY BECOME CLEAR UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS FULLY FORMED AND STARTING ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD FIJI WHICH WILL BE TOMORROW AT THE EARLIEST.

Relevant authorities such as MSAF will advise on marine and coastal shipping movements, while airlines will advise on any changes, delays or cancellations of flights in due course.

Please listen for warnings and advisories from the relevant authorities over coming days. This includes DISMAC, Fiji Meteorological Services, District Commissioners Offices, Police, and

The next update for FHTA will be at 4pm this afternoon.