Issued on Wednesday, 13 October 2021

Key Messages:
1.  In total, four to six named tropical cyclones are predicted for Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre – Nadi’s (RSMC-Nadi) area of responsibility (AoR).

In addition, one to three severe tropical cyclones (Category 3 to 5) expected in RSMC-Nadi’s AoR during the 2021-22 tropical cyclone (TC) season.

2.  One to three tropical cyclones likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) during the 2021-22 TC Season.

Of which One to two tropical cyclones are likely to reach severe category (Category 3 to 5).

3.  During past TC seasons which are similar to present, a number of tropical cyclones which affected Fiji passed through the West of the Fiji Group.

Thus, there is an elevated risk of tropical cyclones to pass through the Western Division this season.

However, the whole of Fiji should be equally prepared in the coming tropical cyclone season.

4.  There is increased chances of flooding across the Fiji Group during the coming November to April period.

5.  Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not intensify into cyclones or low-pressure systems that are a result of decaying cyclones, can still cause widespread rainfall and potential flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Winston sprawled across the Fiji Islands on February 20, 2016. This infrared view of the storm from the NOAA-NASA Suomi satellite shows warm surfaces (such as the open ocean at image upper right) in shades of blue with progressively colder temperatures (such as the tops of Winston’s towering thunderstorm clouds) in darkest red. Image by Dan Pisut, NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

The official 2021-22 Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season extends between 1st of November 2021 and 30th April 2022.

The peak period for tropical cyclone activities in the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nadi– Tropical Cyclone Centre (TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) is usually from January to March.

While the TC season is between November to April, occasionally cyclones in the region have formed in October and May and rarely in September and June.

Therefore, an out of season tropical cyclone activity cannot be ruled out.

The RSMC Nadi – TCC is responsible for monitoring tropical cyclone activity in the area bounded from 160 degrees East (160°E) to 120 degrees West (120°W) Longitude and from the Equator to
25 degrees South (25°S) Latitude (refer to figure 1).

It should be noted that the predictions provided are only to be used as guidance and the given range of tropical cyclone numbers is indicative only.

It is expected that the total number of TCs could be in the vicinity of the listed values, and not necessarily within the given range.

Figure 1: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre (TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR), with predicted number of TCs’ for the Western and Eastern Pacific region.

All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the 2021-22 TC season and take heed of tropical cyclone alerts, warnings and advisories seriously whenever it is issued from the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) to reduce the effects on life and property.

A detailed version of the 2021-22 TC Seasonal Outlook issued by the Fiji Meteorological Service is available on the official website of the department at www.met.gov.fj.

For more information and clarification: please contact the Acting Director of Meteorology, Mr. Terry Atalifo on 9905379 or Terry.Atalifo@met.gov.fj.

Figure 2: One to three tropical cyclones are likely to pass through Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Figure 4: Predicted number of Severe Tropical Cyclones for the Pacific Island Countries EEZ during the 2021-2022.

Figure 5: Tropical cyclone Risk for the Pacific Island Countries during the 2021-2022 TC Season in comparison to climatology.

Figure 6: Severe Tropical Cyclone Risk for the Pacific Island Countries during the 2021-2022 TS Season in comparison to climatology.

Feedback: adi.sovasiga@fijisun.com.fj