Special Weather Bulletin Number 07 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 7:58pm on Monday the 13th of November 2023

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

STATUS: TROPICAL CYCLONE MAL
Location: 10.8S 171.3E, 660km West-Northwest of Rotuma or 950km Northwest of Yasawa-i-Rara.
Maximum Winds: 35 knots [65km/hr, gusting to 50 knots [90km/hr] and will continue to increase.
Central Pressure: 995 Hpa.
Movement: Southeast at 29km/hr. Expected to move towards Fiji waters.

Time of observation or analysis: 6pm today [FST]

FORECAST POSITION:

* 12hr or 6am Tuesday : 13.2S 173.0E or 440km West of Rotuma or 620 km Northwest of Yasawa-i-Rara [Confident: High]
* 24hr or 3pm Tuesday : 15.6S 174.3E or 370km West-Northwest of Yasawa-i-Rara or 410km Northwest of Nadi [Confident: High]
* 36hr or 3am on Wednesday : 17.8S 175.5E or 210km West of Nadi or 260km West-Southwest of Yasawa-i-Rara [Confident: High]
* 48hr or 3pm on Wednesday : 19.8S 176.7E or 180km West-Southwest of Kadavu or 250km South-Southwest of Kadavu [Confident: High]

Based on the intensity forecast, the system is expected to be elevated to category 2 in the next 12 to 18rs during its passage.

CAUTION: Damaging winds and cyclone impacts could begin several hours prior to the cyclone center passes over or nearby.

Thus, secure your homes and properties and know your evacuation centers.

List of all Active Alerts or Warnings

A Storm Warning remains in force for Yasawa and Mamanuca group, western and northern Viti Levu.

A Storm Alert remains in force for southern viti levu, vatulele, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands.

A Gale Warning remains in force for force for Rotuma, western half of Vanua Levu [Dreketi, Bua to Savusavu], eastern Viti Levu and Lomaiviti group.

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for rest of Fiji.

A Heavy Rain Warning remains in force for the whole Fiji group.

Situation: An active trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain affects the country.

Forecast:

For Yasawa and Mamanuca group, western, northern and southern Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu and nearby smaller islands:
Expect strong southeasterly winds up to 45 km/hr with gusts to 80 km/hr.

Winds may further increase to gale force with speeds of 65km/hr with gusts to 90km/hr from tomorrow morning and may further
increase to storm force with speeds of 95km/hr with gusts to 130km/hr from tomorrow afternoon.

Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.

Rough to very rough seas. high to very high seas from tomorrow.

For Rotuma:
Expect strong southeasterly winds up to 45 km/hr with gusts to 80 km/hr.

Winds may further increase to gale force with speeds of 65km/hr with gusts to 90km/hr from tomorrow morning.

Periods of rain, heavy at times and few thunderstorms.

Rough to very rough seas, high seas from tomorrow.

For western half of Vanua Levu [Dreketi, Bua to Savusavu], eastern Viti Levu and Lomaiviti group:
Expect strong southeasterly winds up to 45 km/hr with gusts to 80km/hr.

Winds may further increase to gale force with speeds of 85km/hr with gusts to 120km/hr from tomorrow morning.

Periods of rain, heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.

Rough to very rough seas, high seas from tomorrow.

For the rest of the Fiji group:
Expect strong southeasterly winds up to 45 km/hr with gusts to 80 km/hr.

Winds may further increase to gale force with speeds of 55km/hr with gusts to 80km/hr from Tuesday afternoon.

Occasional rain, heavy at times and few thunderstorms over most places.

Possible Impacts due to Heavy Rain:
– Localised flooding of susceptible communities, business and low-lying areas.

– Localised flooding of minor roads, iris crossing and bridges with some disruption to traffic flow.

– Poor visibility at land and sea with increased risk of motor vehicle accidents due to slippery roads.

Possible Impacts due to expected Tropical Cyclone Mal from Tuesday [14/11]:

– Significant damage to houses of very light materials and old galvanized iron roofs blown off

– Risk of disruption in communication network and power supply due to damaged power lines

– Most plants and crops are damaged and downed

– Damages and flooding of roads, settlements, properties and infrastructure near streams and river banks.

– Few small trees are broken and blocking roads with major disruption to traffic flow

– Displacement of communities near streams and river banks due to flooding with danger to life

– Localised disruption of essential services

– High risk of sea travel for all types of sea crafts

– Damaging due to severe coastal inundation of debris along low lying coastal areas especially during high tides.

Location of Centre and Strength:

Location: 10.5s 170.1e, 700km west-northwest of Rotuma or 990km northwest of Yasawa-i-rara.

Maximum winds: 30 knots [45km/hr], gusting to 45 knots [80km/hr] and will continue to increase.

Central pressure: 997 hpa

Status: Tropical Depresson TD02F

Location of Centre and Strength:
The following information is provided especially for the Mariners:
Over vatu-i-ra passage, Yasawa, Mamanuca, Kadavu passage, koro seas and northern Vanua Levu waters.

Expect southeast winds 20 to 30 knots

Winds further increasing to gale force with speeds 35 to 45 knots, gusting to 55 knots from tomorrow morning and may further increase to
storm force with speeds of 50 knots and gusting to 70 knots from tomorrow afternoon.

Rough to very rough seas, becoming high to very high seas from tomorrow.

For the rest of Fiji waters:
Expect southeast winds 20 to 30 knots.

Winds further increasing to gale force with speeds of 35 to 45 knots, gusting to 55 knots from tomorrow afternoon.

Rough to very rough seas, becoming high seas from later tomorrow.

The next special weather bulletin for Fiji will be issued at 10.30pm tonight or earlier.

Source: https://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=warn1#20020.txt