World Bank warns Fiji growth could slow below 3%

Fiji’s economic growth could slow below three per cent unless the country urgently strengthens reforms, improves productivity and rebuilds fiscal discipline, the World Bank has warned.

Officiating at the 51st Fiji Institute of Chartered Accountants Annual Congress 2026 at the Crowne Plaza Fiji Nadi Bay Resort and Spa in Nadi on Friday, World Bank East Asia and Pacific Region finance management practice manager Patricia McKenzie said Fiji was entering a critical economic transition.

“Fiji is no longer in a phase of recovery. It is in a phase of transition,” Ms McKenzie said.

She said Fiji’s growth for 2026 was projected at between 2.5 and 2.7 per cent amid inflation pressures and global uncertainty.

“The message is sobering, but necessary. Fiji is required to rebuild its fiscal buffers while increasing capital spending, a difficult but crucial balancing act.”

Ms McKenzie warned Fiji’s heavy reliance on tourism and services continued to expose the country to global shocks, climate risks and economic volatility.

“Growth is at risk of slowing below three per cent without decisive credibility and adequate reforms,” she said.

However, she said stronger action on productivity, human capital, the business climate, inclusion and fiscal discipline could lift growth to nearly six per cent and help Fiji achieve high-income status by 2042.

Ms McKenzie also identified low female labour force participation, skills mismatches and weak productivity as major barriers to long-term growth.

“Female participation has remained stagnant at around 40 per cent, and this represents a major missed opportunity for jobs, innovation and inclusive growth,” she said.

“Credible budgeting, realistic forecasting, disciplined execution and transparent reporting are no longer bureaucratic exercises. They are acts of national resilience.”

She urged leaders to strengthen institutions, improve public spending and invest in human capital to secure Fiji’s long-term prosperity.

“Political stability has opened doors, but only structural reform, institutional strength, sound financial management and human capital investment will allow the country to walk through those doors of opportunity,” she said.