Up to three cyclones forecast for Fiji this season

Fiji is expected to experience a near-normal tropical cyclone season, with up to three cyclones forecast to pass through the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Of these, one to two could reach severe Category 3 to Category 5 strength.

According to the Fiji Meteorological Service’s Tropical Seasonal Outlook 2026-2027, two to three tropical cyclones are likely to pass through Fiji’s EEZ during the 2026-27 season.

Of these systems, one to two are expected to intensify into severe tropical cyclones, reaching Category 3 to Category 5 strength.

The outlook states that all parts of Fiji face an equal risk of being affected by tropical cyclones, underscoring the need for communities nationwide to remain vigilant throughout the season.

“Two to three tropical cyclones are likely to pass through Fiji's Exclusive Economic Zone during the 2026-27 tropical cyclone season,” the outlook states.

“Of these, one to two tropical cyclones are likely to reach severe Category 3-5 intensity.”

Tropical cyclone activity typically peaks between January and February. However, the report warns that storms can develop at any time during the season and that out-of-season cyclones cannot be ruled out.

The forecast was developed using three past seasons with similar climate conditions: 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

Based on these analogue years, forecasters expect near-normal tropical cyclone activity in Fiji, which is usually affected by about two cyclones each season.

The weather office has also cautioned against focusing solely on named cyclones, noting that tropical depressions and disturbances can cause significant damage.

“It does not take a direct hit or a severe tropical cyclone to cause considerable damage or life-threatening weather,” the outlook states.

“Tropical disturbances or depressions that do not attain cyclone intensity can and have previously caused strong winds, widespread heavy rainfall, landslides and flooding.”

The report highlights the significant impacts tropical depressions have historically had in Fiji, particularly through heavy rainfall and severe flooding.

Officials are urging residents to remain alert throughout the cyclone season and take all weather advisories and warnings seriously.

“All communities should remain alert and prepared throughout the tropical cyclone season and take heed of all advisories whenever they are issued,” the outlook states.