TD03F expected to move southeast, cyclone risk remains low

Tropical Disturbance TD03F is expected to move southeast of Fiji today, with meteorologists saying the likelihood of it developing into a tropical cyclone remains low.

The Fiji Meteorological Service said the system was analysed near 11.5 degrees south and 168.4 degrees east last night and is forecast to track southeastwards away from the main Fiji group.

TD03F remains slow-moving, steered by a near-equatorial ridge. Its exact position is uncertain due to limited observational data, although satellite imagery indicates gradual organisation rather than rapid intensification.

The system is embedded in a favourable ocean environment, with sea surface temperatures around 30 degrees Celsius and good upper-level outflow.

However, low to moderate wind shear continues to limit further development.

Global forecast models indicate the disturbance will continue drifting southeast at a slow pace, remaining over open waters and not directly approaching Fiji.

Meteorologists said any movement toward the Fiji group is unlikely at this stage.

While slight intensification is possible along its projected path, the potential for TD03F to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours remains low.

Despite this, associated cloud bands and unstable conditions linked to the broader weather pattern continue to affect the country, bringing periods of rain, thunderstorms and an increased risk of flash flooding.

A gale warning remains in force for open waters between 10°S to 15°S and 168°E to 174°E, with northwest to northeast winds of up to 35 knots.

Motorists are urged to take extra caution as slippery roads may lead to hazardous driving conditions and traffic disruptions, while mariners have been advised to exercise caution due to unsettled seas and occasional strong winds.

Weather officials have advised the public, particularly those in low-lying and flood-prone areas, to remain alert and continue monitoring official forecasts. Authorities will continue to closely monitor TD03F and issue updates should its speed, track or intensity change.