In Bid to Reclaim, Tarrifs Used As Weapon

When Donald Trump slapped heavy tariffs on friendly nations like India and Brazil, and pushed the European Union to consider heavy tariffs on India and China, the official line was clear: punish Russia, protect Ukraine.

But scratch beneath the surface, and a different story emerges-Ukraine may be the headline, but the real drivers of this aggressive trade posture are threefold: oil's haunting return to centre stage, America's fading grip on global wealth, and China's uncomfortable proximity to the top.

Oil: America's Comeback Commodity

In 1975, the United States (U.S) imposed strict limits on crude oil exports to shield itself from global market volatility. For the next four decades, it played a quiet role in oil production, in­stead exerting influence through massive investments in the Middle East and military bases strategi­cally placed near oil-rich regions.

Then came a seismic shift, in 2015, President Barack Obama signed legislation lifting the export ban. Fast forward to 2024-25, and the U.S. is now the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas, pumping out 20,135 thousand barrels per day­nearly double the output of Saudi Arabia (10,856) and Russia (10,752). But production is only half the battle.

The world's two biggest oil consumers-China and India-still source most of their crude from Russia, the Middle East, Nigeria, and other suppliers. Meanwhile, America's oil exports have surged, with mineral fuels, oil, and oil prod­ucts accounting for 16 per cent of total U.S exports in 2024-25, making it the country's top export category.

Yet, cheap Russian oil and India's refining prowess are undercutting American refineries. The threat isn't just economic-it's existential. The U.S oil industry faces stiff competition, and Europe, with few alternatives, is nudged into alignment with Washington. The narrative of "saving Ukraine" masks a deeper motive: saving America's own oil empire.

Oil tanker.

Photo: IMF

The Shrinking Circle of Wealth

For decades, the world's top 10 economies-led by the US-dic­tated global policy across trade, health, innovation, and defence. The G7 was once a powerhouse ca­pable of shaping the fate of nations.

In 1975, global GDP stood at $6.03 trillion (FJ$13.4 trillion), with the top 10 economies contributing $4.57 trillion (FJ$10.23 trillion)-an over­whelming 75.7 per cent share.

The U.S alone produced 27.8 per cent of global GDP. But the tides have turned. By 2025, the top 10 economies account for just 67 per cent of global GDP.

America's share has dipped to 26.8 per cent, and several of its tradi­tional allies have slipped from the top ranks. In their place, China, India, and Brazil-backed by the BRICS alliance-have emerged as formidable challengers. China now commands 16.8 per cent of global GDP, positioning itself as a direct rival to U.S domi­nance. The balance of power has shifted, and the era of unilateral decision-making is over.

The last time America faced such a challenge was in 1985, when the Soviet Union held 16.8 per cent of global GDP and the U.S stood at 33 per cent. That was the height of the Cold War.

Today, the contest for economic control is just as fierce-­even without the backdrop of a war in Ukraine.

Ukraine has become centrestage of global politics.

Photo: IMF

China: Breathing Down America's Neck

For half a century, the U.S enjoyed uncontested leadership among the world's top economies, especially after the Soviet Union's collapse. In 1975, America produced $1.68 tril­lion (FJ$3.76 trillion)-37.5 per cent of the top 10 economies and 27.8 per cent of global GDP.

Between 1975 and 2020, the U.S consistently con­tributed 35 per cent to 40 per cent of the top 10 GDP, peaking at 42.1 per cent in 2000. China, ranked ninth in 1975 with a modest $0.16 trillion (FJ$358 tril­lion) GDP, was no threat and often seen as an ally.

But after 2000, the landscape shifted, China climbed to sixth place, contributing 11.7 per cent of the top 10 GDP. By 2020, its share had surged to 25.9 per cent, and it has held above the 25 per cent mark for five con­secutive years.

This dramatic rise disrupted America's dominance within the elite economic club. at $30.5 trillion (FJ$68.2 trillion), while China trails closely at $19.2 trillion-63 per cent of the U.S to­tal-with a higher growth rate.

No nation has ever came this close to match U.S economic power-not even the Soviet Union, whose econ­omy in 1985 peaked at just 50.8 per cent of America's. India's rise to fourth place among global economies, coupled with its independent foreign policy, adds further complexity.

The U.S strug­gles to consolidate the influence of top economies to counter China's momentum. The absence of domes­tic fossil fuels in both China and In­dia makes them reliant on foreign energy markets-a vulnerability the U.S seeks to exploit to regain control over global trade and pro­tect its oil sector.

Meanwhile, millions of Ukrain­ians remain caught in a geopoliti­cal crossfire, unaware that their suffering is part of a larger contest between global titans-not merely a war with Russia, but a struggle for economic supremacy.