Fiji braces for drier months as El Niño strengthens

Fiji is expected to experience below-normal rainfall for the rest of the year as a strengthening El Niño takes hold across the tropical Pacific, the Fiji Meteorological Service has warned.

According to the latest Fiji Climate Outlook, the current El Niño event is forecast to strengthen to strong or very strong intensity and persist through the end of 2026, increasing the likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions nationwide.

Rainfall across the Western, Central, Northern and Eastern divisions, as well as Rotuma, is expected to be normal or below normal for the remainder of the year.

Conditions are expected to worsen during the July to September period, with below-normal rainfall forecast across all four divisions and Rotuma, signalling a higher risk of prolonged dry conditions. The same outlook continues into October to December, when below-normal rainfall is again expected throughout Fiji.

The Fiji Meteorological Service says El Niño events are generally associated with below-normal rainfall in Fiji, particularly during the dry season, although the severity and timing of impacts can vary between events.

While rainfall is expected to decline, maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast to remain near normal across most of the Fiji Group, with Rotuma likely to experience above-normal temperatures.

The weather office has advised the public to monitor the latest climate outlooks, weather forecasts and official advisories as the El Niño event continues to strengthen.